Five evidence states
| State | Uses | Can establish | Cannot establish |
|---|---|---|---|
| Simulation | Constructed scenarios | Rule behavior under specified assumptions | Historical or live market performance |
| Historical backtest | Recorded past data | Past-data result under the model and cost assumptions | Future performance or actual fills |
| Paper/testnet | Current or test data, no equivalent production capital | Workflow, integration and decision behavior | Production liquidity, impact and capital risk |
| Shadow mode | Live market data without orders | Real-time signal and control behavior | Actual execution or realized P&L |
| Live | Production orders and capital | Observed result for that account, period and size | Future returns or results at larger scale |
A dashboard needs a denominator
“40% return” is incomplete without capital, dates, cash flows, costs, benchmark, drawdown and whether the number is annualized. APY can magnify a short observation window into an unstable annual figure. The calculation method must remain close to the number.
Backtest quality checklist
- Data existed and was available at the decision timestamp
- Asset universe includes delisted and failed assets where relevant
- Parameters were not selected using the reported test interval
- Fees, spreads, slippage, funding and borrow are included
- Order size respects historical market depth
- Drawdown and adverse regimes are visible
- Results are compared with a simple baseline
Live-result quality checklist
- Account and observation period are defined
- Deposits, withdrawals and strategy changes are visible
- Returns are net or gross with costs stated
- Open positions and unrealized P&L are handled consistently
- Maximum drawdown and exposure accompany return
- Verification scope and independent access are explained
How this affects Knidos links
The current Knidos product overview visibly labels its displayed metrics as backtest performance. We preserve that label when linking to it. A future change to live status would require a new evidence review rather than a silent copy update.
Inspect the current Knidos page ↗